GoldNuggets — Gold, Bitcoin, Energy, Oil
GoldNuggets Digest: ETF allocations to gold vs crypto, gold vs bitcoin ratio, commodity stocks, global energy sector stocks, crude oil sentiment and technicals...
The GoldNuggets Digest is our weekly publication. It contains “nuggets” of Charts & Research on gold, commodities, and macro —issues and insights which we think will be interesting and useful for investors.
ETF Allocations — Gold Up, Crypto Down
Just as allocations to gold ETFs are starting to move higher, allocations to crypto (Bitcoin & Ethereum) have peaked and rolled over.
The below chart looks at “implied allocations“ of investors by taking basically the market share of aggregated assets in US listed ETFs. While there are obviously other ways to gain exposure to gold (and Bitcoin), this does give an insight into investor positioning in these assets via the ETF market.
Gold vs Bitcoin Ratio
With Bitcoin heading into a bear market (down -25% from top-to-bottom), the gold vs bitcoin ratio is turning up off relative lows.
Just as I noted how gold was breaking out vs stocks last week, this could well be the start of a major breakout by gold vs bitcoin. So it’s something to keep an eye on as the macro-risk backdrop shifts.
Commodity Stocks Sequence
This one reminds me of my chart of processions in relative performance for gold vs other assets (gold outperforming cash, then bonds, and now stocks), and the sequence of breakouts in gold, then silver, and then industrial metals.
So I think this observation is on the money, and I think this procession of processions is poignant. As Tavi observes: “Gold stocks broke out of a major consolidation. Copper miners followed with almost the same pattern. Energy equities are next, in my view.“ (source)
Global Energy Stocks
And if you look at global energy stocks there is some very interesting price action underway indeed. The world energy stock index is turning up with strengthening breadth — and is set to challenge the upper end of that multi-year trading range.
As with the chart above, put this sector on breakout watch.
Crude Oil on the Cusp
Of course a key variable for the previous two charts is going to be what happens with the oil price. At the moment neither bulls nor bears have really been able to gain the upper hand, with crude oil stuck in the range.
To me what’s significant about this chart is the fact that despite all the bearishness on energy prices, WTI crude has managed to hold valiantly onto that lower support level. In other words, the absence of a bearish breakdown is evidence of bullishness.
And the other thing is Consensus Inc sentiment has been steadily ticking higher off previous consensus pessimism. That’s a classic bullish sentiment signal.
So I think crude oil and energy stocks are well worth keeping a close eye on, and they could be the next big thing and perhaps even *the* big story of 2026.
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FWIW-- one can n SHOULD ALSO watch any Commodity inflation index, Ala the CRB or Goldman Sachs "<GSCI" for any Commodity plays, being either ETF's or the actual futures markets. Those indices tend to forerun the actual commodities.
The ETF allocation chart showing gold rising while crypto rolls over is fasinating timing. Bitcoin down 25% while gold vs bitcoin ratio turns up at relative lows feels like a major inflection point. The commodity stocks sequence observation makes sense too, especialy with energy equities positioned to follow gold and copper miners. Crude holding support despite bearish sentiment is a strong signal, will be intresting to see if energy becomes the big story of 2026.