GoldNuggets — 3K, China, Silver, Stocks
Gold Nuggets Digest: breaking the 3k mark, China retail buying, gold vs stocks breakout watch, silver price trends, fading fiat (USD gold purchasing power)
The GoldNuggets Digest is our free publication — it contains "nuggets" of Charts & Research that come across our desk on gold, precious metals, miners, and macro which we think might be interesting and useful for investors.
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Breaking Thousands
James Stanley cautions on the 3k enthusiasm: “these types of rounded levels often take time to gain acceptance; the $1k level was a year and a half before buyers could force a trend above that price; the $2k level took 3.5 years, even with Fed pedal to the floor through Covid“ (source)
Will it be different this time? (p.s. please feel welcome to join the conversation in the comments section; questions and opinions are encouraged!)
China Loves Gold
China's gold ETF AUM and holdings reached record highs. (source)
China has been an important driver of gold demand both on the institutional/central bank side of things, but also on retail ETF (and physical) investment demand.
Gold vs Stocks
Gold looks set to breakout vs the Value Line Geometric Index. (source)
Silver Lines
- of observes on Silver: “Although silver has traded in a choppy, erratic manner for much of the past year, it is in a confirmed uptrend… This is evident in the 200-day simple moving average, a helpful tool for identifying an asset’s primary trend by filtering out short-term price fluctuations.“ (source)
Fading Fiat
To celebrate the US$ gold price breaking the $3000/oz level, here’s the flipside — the amount of gold in ounces that a single US Dollar can buy.
Or in other words it’s basically a chart of the long-term decline of US Dollar purchasing power.
Log on to the website for more updates: gold.topdowncharts.com
ICYMI: Previous edition GoldNuggets — Flows, Bars, Miners, Oil
GoldNuggets — Flows, Bars, Miners, Oil
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Great work Callum!
Regency Bias- watch out for it.
Markets Rhyme. I like this turn of phrase.
Price tells all, but within price are clues to possible outcomes.
Such as breath/AD line in NYSE.
Momentum is 1st derivative of Price in ALL instruments.
Now my point here is….
Acceleration is 2nd derivative of Price.
Ok if you believe classical mathematics- then when acceleration happens it’ll happen first, then momentum, then price.
Gold’s been in a price & momentum uptrend without much acceleration increase. My belief is that this is the time for the 3rd derivative “Acceleration” to kick in!!!!!
Take it as you will.
PadreDavid
For me the acceleration is based on the acceleration of the increase in US debt. The extension of the Trump tax cuts cannot be offset by cuts to the US government staffing and spending cuts in general. This path is unsustainable and leading to a point of singularity. The clear lack of structure and focus for the cuts implies the plan might be to force a pain point where a complete restructuring is brought forward rather than kicking the can down the road again.