GoldNuggets — Gold 2025 Technicals
Gold Outlook Charts: Gold and Emerging Markets, the path to 20k, Gold vs the 60/40 portfolio, Gold vs Bitcoin price cycles and the coming 5th cycle...
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Gold vs Emerging Markets
Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital notes: “If we are at the start of another secular bull market in gold, which I believe to be the case, then I see emerging markets on the brink of a major catch-up.“ (source)
You might also argue given the increasing importance of emerging markets in the global gold market, this could trigger a virtuous cycle. So it will be worth keeping close tabs on EM equities in the year ahead.
Gold to $20,000 ?
Gold probably does eventually go to $20k, but plotting the path and timing is no small feat. Here’s one scenario presented by Gold Predictors with a useful set of trendlines and triggers to keep track of. (source)
Gold vs 60/40 — When Breakout?
Jordan Roy-Byrne of The Daily Gold highlights in this chart how remarkable it is that gold is still yet to breakout vs the 60/40 portfolio… but more to the point, that when/if gold breaks out vs 60/40 (the black line in the chart below) it will be much more significant than the break out by gold from its 13-year cup & handle pattern — so this will be another key chart to monitor in 2025. (source)
Gold vs Bitcoin — When 5th Cycle?
Here’s the chart of Gold vs Bitcoin. Note, I have presented this in log scale as the early years of Bitcoin were simply on a different scale (whereas things are becoming slightly more stable on this chart in more recent years as Bitcoin matures as an asset class).
The thing I find interesting about this chart is the apparent repeating cycles or waves of relative performance: i.e. 1st cycle = 2011-13, 2nd cycle = 2013-17, 3rd cycle 2017-21, and 4th cycle 2021-24 (?).
If these cycles continue to repeat and a 5th cycle is about to begin that will mean a potentially large initial wave of outperformance by gold vs Bitcoin over the coming 12-18 months. Given the hype around Trump and the promised Bitcoin reserve, I would say that’s an out of consensus view….
Log on to the website for more updates: gold.topdowncharts.com
ICYMI: Previous edition GoldNuggets — Gold Return Rankings
GoldNuggets — Gold Return Rankings
The GoldNuggets digest is our free publication at Monthly Gold Market Chartbook. It contains "nuggets" of Charts & Research that come across our desk on gold/macro which we think might be interesting and useful for investors.
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