GoldNuggets — Paradigm Shifts
GoldNuggets Digest: tracking the debasement trade, devaluation of labor, gold breakouts vs other asset classes, gold vs bitcoin, the gold-oil anomaly...
The GoldNuggets Digest is our weekly publication. It contains “nuggets” of Charts & Research on gold, commodities, and macro —issues and insights which we think will be interesting and useful for investors.
Debasement
The flipside of surging gold prices is a long-term and near-consistent loss of purchasing power by the US dollar over time.
As they say: “invert, always invert“ (the chart shows how many ounces of gold you can buy with 1 US dollar — and n.b. it is in log scale).
Labor Devaluation
The other debasement going on is what you might effectively call the devaluation of labor. The hours of work it takes the average worker in the USA to buy 1 oz of gold has smashed out of the range that prevailed over the past 100 years to a new all-time high.
Gold vs Other Assets
Gold has easily beaten the low bar set by cash and bonds (even including interest reinvested) — and now, with a lag, gold seems to be taking the upper hand vs the stockmarket (which has set a much higher performance hurdle).
This is a very interesting development in terms of the gold bull market, but also in terms of what it might mean for the stockmarket (pay attention to the periods when gold started beating stocks e.g. early-2000’s dot-com burst, and then again another wave up during the 08 financial crisis).
Gold vs Bitcoin
Here’s an interesting fact you might have missed: the gold vs bitcoin ratio has made a higher low (and is turning up again …also, the previous low occurred at a major support level).
Again, I think you can argue that this says as much about the momentum in gold as it does about the outlook for bitcoin (which in many ways behaves more like a risk asset and has a much higher correlation with stocks than bonds).
The Great Gold-Oil Anomaly of 2025
Lastly, keeping things big picture and perspective building this week, you might have seen it already, but I think it’s quite interesting and echoes some of what I’ve been saying recently (about oil vs gold).
“big gold gain + big oil loss = historical anomaly” (source)
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