GoldNuggets — Commodities in Focus
GoldNuggets Digest: commodities vs gold, valuation indicators, commodity fund flows, commodity technicals, macro monetary tailwinds...
The GoldNuggets Digest is our weekly publication. It contains “nuggets” of Charts & Research on gold, commodities, and macro —issues and insights which we think will be interesting and useful for investors.
In case you missed it: Gold Market Chartbook - November 2025 (click through to check out the just-released latest monthly chart pack)
Golden Harbinger for Commodities
While gold has more than doubled over the past couple of years, the rest of commodities have been stuck in a trading range.
To the extent that some degree of the gold bull market reflects monetary easing and currency debasement, the logic of catch-up is one of monetary commodities (like gold) leading the charge and real-world activity-linked commodities playing catch-up later (just like what happened in 2020-22).
Valuation Indicators — Commodities vs Gold
One key clue for possible gold-commodity rotation or even just commodity catch-up is where the valuation indicators are sitting for gold vs commodities.
Gold looks expensive, while commodities look cheap.
Whether it ends up being rotation (e.g. gold stumbles while commodities surge) or catch-up (gold stays steady or continues to climb, and the rest of commodities join the party) remains to be seen, but this chart definitely presents a bright picture for commodities.
Commodity Fund Flows
One interesting development on this front is the surge in commodity fund flows, which might be a sign commodities are set to breakout.
We saw similar surge when commodities turned up from the 2020 crash lows, again into the 2022 blow-off top, and also earlier back in 2015/16 when commodities started basing after the Supercycle bust.
Commodity Technicals
On the technical analysis front, zooming out — the GSCI Light Energy Index’s 200-day moving average is turning up out of cyclical bear market and I would argue into an emerging cyclical bull market.
Breadth is turning up again too, but to really gain conviction on this we ideally want to see breadth basically break out of this range and push higher. So that (along with the index itself) is a key variable to keep tabs on.
Macro — Monetary Tailwinds
Lastly, as I highlighted in my 2026 Big Ideas webinar, we’ve seen a significant build-up in monetary tailwinds, and this is likely to contribute to a global economic reacceleration into 2026 (and resurgence in inflation — aka commodities upside).
So overall for commodities it’s a situation of undervalued, improving technicals, and monetary/macro tailwinds. Hence why I have been bullish on commodities at the asset class (aggregate) level.
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The monthly Gold Market Chartbook is specifically designed to help busy investors quickly + easily understand the key drivers of risk vs opportunity in the gold market (and how it fits into traditional portfolios).
The pack includes over 70 charts, specialized indicators, and unique data, spanning:
Sentiment/Flows/Positioning (where are the pressures building up?)
Technicals, Global Gold Price (momentum, trend, divergences)
Long-term & Valuation Indicators (is gold overvalued?)
Gold Influences: Monetary & Macro (monetary tailwinds in play)
Gold Influences: Supply & Demand (supply vs demand outlook)
Gold Priced in other Currencies (what’s gold doing elsewhere?)
Gold Price Ratios (how is gold performing vs other assets?)
Asset Allocation Perspectives on Gold (how does gold fit in portfolios?)
Asset Watch: Stocks/Bonds/USD/Credit (risks vs opportunities in other major asset classes — and how that compares vs gold)
Silver Charts Section: sentiment, positioning, flows, valuations (i.e. how is the outlook for silver prices?)
NEW: Gold Miners: valuations, flows, allocations, fundamentals (i.e. what’s the risk/return setup for Gold Mining stocks?)
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Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research & Founder
Topdown Charts | www.topdowncharts.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
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Uranium and other metals would be great. Its would be a perfect bundle with gold/silver/copper/platinum/pladium/uranium.
Fantastic chart pack, Callum. The divergence you highlighted between the gold monetary premium and the broader commodity complex is the defining anomaly of this cycle. The catch-up thesis makes perfect sense given the historical lags, but I wonder if the 'real-world' leg might be a bit slower to fire this time due to the structural drag from China dampning industrial demand. We might see a bifurcation where energy and monetary metals lead, while pure cyclicals lag a bit longer than the 2020 playbook would suggest. Either way, the valuation gap is too wide to ignore.